Israel mira hacia Iran
Entrevista exclusiva de DW con el periodista Ronen Bergman, reconocido experto en cuestiones militares del diario israelí Yedioth Ahronoth, quien cree posible que Israel ataque las instalaciones atómicas iraníes en 2012.
¿Cómo ve el Gobierno israelí el programa atómico iraní?
Israel parte de que debe de hacerse todo lo posible para que Irán no se transforme en un Estado nuclear. La primera razón es que Irán ha llamado repetidamente a la destrucción del Estado de Israel. Por los traumas del pasado, el Holocausto y las guerras, los israelíes temen extremadamente una nueva catástrofe. Hay otras razones, más prácticas, menos emocionales. Irán apoya el terrorismo y movimientos yihadistas en el Próximo Oriente.
Ronen Bergman
Con armas nucleares, ese apoyo adquiere un significado completamente diferente. Israel parte de que Irán estará en condiciones de producir una primera bomba atómica en un lapso de nueve meses y que le llevará un año más miniaturizarla para que pueda ser lanzada con un cohete Shabab 3.
En un artículo para el New York Times, usted afirmó que Israel podría atacar aún este año las instalaciones nucleares iraníes. ¿Qué podría lograr con un ataque de ese tipo?
Nadie en Israel piensa en destruir el proyecto, porque es imposible. Irán aprendió la lección de la destrucción del reactor iraquí en 1981 por parte de Israel y del reactor sirio en 2007. Los iraníes han descentralizado el proyecto.
Mahmud Ahmadineyad visita la planta de enriquecimiento de uranio de Natans .
Se trata de muchos lugares, algunos bajo tierra y protegidos con artillería antiaérea pesada, lo que hace muy difícil atacarlos. Israel espera que con un ataque pueda demorar el proyecto entre tres y cinco años.
Entonces tendría que repetir los ataques cada par de años…
Cuatro científicos atómicos iraníes asesinados.
En cierto sentido, sí. Un país sin experiencia ninguna con bombas nucleares podría construir una en unos cuatro a siete años. Es decir, que con un ataque la construcción de una bomba no puede postergarse más que siete años. Irán ya va mucho más avanzado, por lo que no es posible postergar la bomba más que entre tres y cinco años.
¿Cómo podría contraatacar Irán?
Irán ha anunciado que contraatacaría y es posible que lo haga. Para ello tienen cinco opciones. Una es el uso de cohetes Shabab, que pueden alcanzar a Israel, y de los cuales posee unos 300. La segunda opción es un contraataque llevado a cabo por Hizbolá en el norte de Israel. Hizbolá dispone de unos 50.000 a 60.000 cohetes que pueden alcanzar prácticamente todo Israel.
Prueba con un cohete Shahin en Irán, en 2010.
La tercera opción es hacer un llamado a Hamás y los movimientos yidahistas en la Franja de Gaza para que arrojen sus cohetes sobre Israel, de los que disponen en gran cantidad. La cuarta posibilidad son ataques terroristas contra judíos e israelíes en todo el mundo. La quinta posibilidad es hacer algo en el Estrecho de Ormuz para que el precio del petróleo aumente significativamente.
En los últimos años fueron asesinados científicos del programa atómico irani, ¿de qué se trata?
No sé quién está detrás de esos asesinatos y si lo supiera no lo diría. Pero está claro que quien lo hace quiere sacar a los científicos iraníes del programa. Y ello podría tener tres razones. La primera es restarle al proyecto gente con experiencia y conocimientos. La segunda es obligar a los iraníes a invertir muchos esfuerzos para prevenir y evitar los próximos asesinatos. Ello implica controlar más al personal, los equipos, eventuales infiltrados, lo cual a su vez reduce los recursos para invertir en el avance del proyecto. La tercera razón es la “deserción blanca”, es decir, que los científicos opten por irse a otro país o volver a sus proyectos civiles o universitarios.
Ya el año pasado hubo especulaciones en cuanto a un eventual ataque de Israel contra instalaciones atómicas iraníes. Es posible que el Gobierno israelí difunda ese tipo de rumores para presionar a Estados Unidos y la comunidad internacional para que tome medidas más duras contra el régimen iraní.
Ésa es la cuestión. Pero es muy difícil convencer a Ehud Barak, el ministro de Defensa israelí, y otros posibles interlocutores de que digan algo concreto respecto a Irán, incluso asegurándoles que no lo publicaré. No obstante, es la primera vez que creo que Israel probablemente atacará. Pero no sé realmente qué piensa Barak al respecto y cuáles son sus planes.
Ronen Bergman es reconocido experto en cuestiones militares de Yedioth Ahronoth, el mayor diario de Israel. Ha publicado varios libros, entre ellos “Secret war with Iran: The 30-year Covert Struggle for Control of a Rogue State”.
Autor: Dennis Stute / PK
Editor: Enrique López
DW's exclusive interview with journalist Ronen Bergman, a recognized expert in military matters in the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, who believes Israel may attack Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012.How does the Israeli government the Iranian nuclear program?Assumes that Israel must do all it can to Iran becomes a nuclear state. The first reason is that Iran has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel. By the traumas of the past, the Holocaust and war, the Israelis fear extremely a new catastrophe.There are other reasons, more practical, less emotional. Iran supports terrorism and jihadist movements in the Middle East.Ronen BergmanWith nuclear weapons, this support takes on a completely different meaning. Israel assumes that Iran will be able to produce an atomic bomb over a period of nine months and it will take another year so it can be miniaturized with a rocket launched Shahab 3.In an article for The New York Times, you said that Israel could attack even this year the Iranian nuclear facilities. What could accomplish such an attack?Nobody in Israel thinks destroy the project, it is impossible. Iran learned the lesson of the destruction of the Iraqi reactor in 1981 by Israel and the Syrian reactor in 2007. The Iranians have decentralized the project.Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits the plant's uranium enrichment natans.It is many places, some underground and protected by heavy flak, which makes it very difficult to attack. Israel hoped that an attack could delay the project for three to five years.Then I'd have to repeat the attacks every couple of years ...Four killed Iranian atomic scientists.In a sense, yes. A country without any experience with nuclear weapons could build one in about four to seven years. That is, an attack with the construction of a pump can not be delayed more than seven years. Iran is already much more advanced, so it is not possible to delay the pump more than three to five years.How might Iran strike back?Iran has announced it will retaliate and may do so. To do have five settings. One is the use of rockets Shabab, which can reach Israel and which has about 300. The second option is a counter-attack carried out by Hezbollah in northern Israel.Hezbollah has some 50,000 to 60,000 rockets that can reach virtually all of Israel.Try a rocket Shahin in Iran in 2010.The third option is to call on Hamas and yidahistas movements in the Gaza Strip to throw their rockets into Israel, the large amount available. The fourth possibility is terrorist attacks against Israelis and Jews worldwide. The fifth possibility is to do something in the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices increase significantly.In recent years scientists were assassinated Irani nuclear program, what is it?I do not know who is behind these murders and if I did not say. But clearly he does want to get Iranian scientists in the program. And this could be three reasons. The first project is to subtract the people with experience and knowledge. The second is to force the Iranians to invest a lot of efforts to prevent and stop the next killing. This implies control over personnel, equipment, any infiltrates, which in turn reduces the resources to invest in advancing the project. The third reason is the "white drop", ie that scientists choose to go to another country or return to their civilian projects or university.Since last year there was speculation about a possible attack by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities. It is possible that the Israeli government spread such rumors to pressure the United States and the international community to take tougher measures against the Iranian regime.That is the question. But it is very difficult to convince Ehud Barak, Israeli Defense Minister, and other potential partners for them to say something concrete about Iran, even assuring them that they will publish it. However, it is the first time I think I will probably attack Israel. But not really know what you think about Barak and what are their plans.Ronen Bergman is a recognized expert in military matters of Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest daily. He has published several books, including "Secret War With Iran: The 30-year Covert Struggle for Control of a Rogue State."Author: Dennis Stute / PK
Editor: Enrique López
DW's exclusive interview with journalist Ronen Bergman, a recognized expert in military matters in the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, who believes Israel may attack Iranian nuclear facilities in 2012.How does the Israeli government the Iranian nuclear program?Assumes that Israel must do all it can to Iran becomes a nuclear state. The first reason is that Iran has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel. By the traumas of the past, the Holocaust and war, the Israelis fear extremely a new catastrophe.There are other reasons, more practical, less emotional. Iran supports terrorism and jihadist movements in the Middle East.Ronen BergmanWith nuclear weapons, this support takes on a completely different meaning. Israel assumes that Iran will be able to produce an atomic bomb over a period of nine months and it will take another year so it can be miniaturized with a rocket launched Shahab 3.In an article for The New York Times, you said that Israel could attack even this year the Iranian nuclear facilities. What could accomplish such an attack?Nobody in Israel thinks destroy the project, it is impossible. Iran learned the lesson of the destruction of the Iraqi reactor in 1981 by Israel and the Syrian reactor in 2007. The Iranians have decentralized the project.Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits the plant's uranium enrichment natans.It is many places, some underground and protected by heavy flak, which makes it very difficult to attack. Israel hoped that an attack could delay the project for three to five years.Then I'd have to repeat the attacks every couple of years ...Four killed Iranian atomic scientists.In a sense, yes. A country without any experience with nuclear weapons could build one in about four to seven years. That is, an attack with the construction of a pump can not be delayed more than seven years. Iran is already much more advanced, so it is not possible to delay the pump more than three to five years.How might Iran strike back?Iran has announced it will retaliate and may do so. To do have five settings. One is the use of rockets Shabab, which can reach Israel and which has about 300. The second option is a counter-attack carried out by Hezbollah in northern Israel.Hezbollah has some 50,000 to 60,000 rockets that can reach virtually all of Israel.Try a rocket Shahin in Iran in 2010.The third option is to call on Hamas and yidahistas movements in the Gaza Strip to throw their rockets into Israel, the large amount available. The fourth possibility is terrorist attacks against Israelis and Jews worldwide. The fifth possibility is to do something in the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices increase significantly.In recent years scientists were assassinated Irani nuclear program, what is it?I do not know who is behind these murders and if I did not say. But clearly he does want to get Iranian scientists in the program. And this could be three reasons. The first project is to subtract the people with experience and knowledge. The second is to force the Iranians to invest a lot of efforts to prevent and stop the next killing. This implies control over personnel, equipment, any infiltrates, which in turn reduces the resources to invest in advancing the project. The third reason is the "white drop", ie that scientists choose to go to another country or return to their civilian projects or university.Since last year there was speculation about a possible attack by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities. It is possible that the Israeli government spread such rumors to pressure the United States and the international community to take tougher measures against the Iranian regime.That is the question. But it is very difficult to convince Ehud Barak, Israeli Defense Minister, and other potential partners for them to say something concrete about Iran, even assuring them that they will publish it. However, it is the first time I think I will probably attack Israel. But not really know what you think about Barak and what are their plans.Ronen Bergman is a recognized expert in military matters of Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest daily. He has published several books, including "Secret War With Iran: The 30-year Covert Struggle for Control of a Rogue State."Author: Dennis Stute / PK
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