Fear Factor in Nuclear Iran
Fear Factor in Nuclear Iran By James R. Holmes October 18, 2012 in Different types of regime—republics, democracies, autocracies—“do” strategy differently. Right? Not if you ask Thucydides. The chronicler of the Peloponnesian War opines that “fear, honor, and interest” comprise “three of the strongest motives” that propel states’ actions. The Greek historian disregards the nature of the regime as a variable in his fear-honor-interest calculus. Freewheeling democratic Athens obeyed his logic of statecraft. So did oligarchic Sparta. The Islamic Republic of Iran may as well. In Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age , my pal Scott Jones and I argue that the nature of the regime influences nuclear strategy and force structure less than common sense says it should. Tehran pursued a policy of nuclear ambiguity under the Shah, only to press ahead with nuclear-weapons R&D under the Islamic regime following the 1979 revolution. The Iranian nuclear program, then,