Posicion de Rusia anta IRAN-
2 de febrero de 2012
Sergio G. Caplan, para Rusia Hoy
Sergio G. Caplan, para Rusia Hoy
Una escalada hasta ahora diplomática aunque con fuertes ruidos de armas ha vuelto a dominar la escena internacional y que tiene como epicentro el Medio Oriente. La amenazante situación cercana a la guerra civil en Siria se agrava con las intenciones golpistas de ciertos círculos occidentales. En Egipto se suceden las manifestaciones contra el gobierno militar. En Libia no se apagan los combates entre partidarios y opositores al nuevo régimen.
Imagen de wikipedia.org
En el Golfo Pérsico, sin embargo, la beligerancia llega a extremos muy calientes. Irán y los Estados Unidos son los principales actores de un conflicto que claramente los excede. El mundo entero se ve involucrado en este aumento de tensión que podría concluir en una guerra por el poder y los recursos naturales de una de las zonas más inestables del planeta.
Luego del anuncio del bloqueo a las importaciones de crudo del país musulmán encabezado por los Estados Unidos y que será seguido progresivamente por los 27 países de la Unión Europea, Irán respondió anunciando que podrá cerrar definitivamente el Estrecho de Ormuz. Este paso es la ruta marítima más importante de exportación de gas y petróleo del Golfo Pérsico, ya que por ella circula el 35% del crudo mundial. A su vez, los Estados Unidos afirmaron que no permitirán el cierre del pasaje y enviaron algunos buques a esa región para realizar maniobras militares. Los británicos y los franceses hicieron lo propio.
Inestabilidad del sistema internacional
Esta situación genera gran inestabilidad en el sistema internacional debido a los intereses que pone en juego, entre lo cuales figura principalmente la posibilidad de que Irán obtenga al fin la capacidad de desarrollar armamento nuclear. Ante este escenario, los Estados Unidos no descartan la vía militar para hacer frente a la República Islámica, incluso “empujando” a Israel para comenzar la confrontación.
La meta principal de Norteamérica consiste en cambiar el régimen de gobierno en Irán para desactivar su programa nuclear y así lograr el control sobre toda la rica región petrolera de Medio Oriente. Sin embargo, para conquistar este objetivo, primero debe voltear al presidente Bashar Al Assad en Siria, principal aliado político de Irán. Siria es hoy la clave geopolítica de la región. A menos que Occidente logre derrocar el gobierno de Damasco, el presidente iraní Mahmud Ahmadineyad encontrará una valiosa vía de escape al Mar Mediterráneo apenas los Estados Unidos se retiren de Irak. Por ese motivo, parte de las tropas norteamericanas que ya evacuaron Irak fueron relocalizadas en bases en Jordania, justo en la frontera con Siria.
La posición del Kremlin
La Federación Rusa no es ajena a este conflicto ya que mantiene estrechas relaciones tanto con Irán como con Estados Unidos y por este mismo motivo no le conviene que el conflicto continúe su escalada. El Kremlin insiste tenazmente en mantener la negociación entre el “Grupo 5+1” (los miembros permanentes del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU más Alemania) y el país islámico para lograr un acuerdo en base a la comprobación de la utilización por parte de Irán del enriquecimiento de uranio para fines civiles. Algo para lo que Teherán acaba de reiterar su predisposición, confirmada por la reciente delegación del OIEA (Organismo Internacional de Energía Atómica)..
Rusia está en contra de cualquier tipo de sanciones que le puedan ser impuestas a Irán ya sea unilateralmente o mediante Naciones Unidas. No hay pruebas suficientes para demostrar que el programa nuclear iraní tenga como objetivo la obtención de armas de destrucción masiva, y mientras tanto, no hay razón para que el mismo sea reprimido legítimamente por ningún Estado u organización internacional. Sin embargo, el “Grupo 5+1) no ha logrado resultados visibles a pesar de la voluntad de negociar expresada por la República Islámica. El ministro de Asuntos Exteriores iraní, Ali Akbar Salehi, propuso a Turquía como próximo lugar de encuentro del sexteto y espera la confirmación por parte de losEstados Unidos, quien debería, según pedido de Irán, sentarse a negociar sin condicionamientos previos.
Aliados y rivales
En caso de que el conflicto llegue a un nivel de confrontación bélica, Rusia se vería en una postura bastante incómoda. Irán es uno de sus principales aliados en materia energética. Uno de los centros de investigación atómica más importantes de Irán, la central de Bushehr, es producto de la cooperación con Rusia. Por otra parte, el proyecto de construcción del oleoducto entre Bakú, Tbilisi y el puerto turco de Ceihán en el Mediterráneo (BTC), impulsado por Turquía y los EE.UU. ha fortalecido la cooperación entre Rusia e Irán. Ambos países ven dicho proyecto como una amenaza directa a sus intereses energéticos. Este vínculo especial entre Moscú y Teherán permite además a Rusia aumentar su capacidad de influencia en su política hacia Medio Oriente.
Sin embargo, no todo es cooperación en esta relación bilateral. Rusia e Irán mantienen algunas discrepancias en cuanto a sus proyecciones sobre el Mar Caspio y sus influencias sobre la zona del Cáucaso Sur, en donde Irán se ve como líder regional y Rusia debe competir para demostrar la vigencia de su histórico poder. Si bien esta situación se encuentra actualmente bajo control, existe una puja por las alianzas con las ex-repúblicas soviéticas del Cáucaso para intentar mantener lazos comerciales y militares en la región, en donde también procuran jugar intereses turcos, norteamericanos y árabes..
Por estos motivos, la Federación Rusa apoya a Irán en el desarrollo de su plan nuclear, pero siempre y cuando éste persiga fines pacíficos. De no ser así, Rusia estaría obligada a ver a Irán como un rival mucho más serio, disputándose el poder no sólo en las áreas mencionadas anteriormente, sino sobre toda la región de Asia Central.
¿La guerra fría se acabó?
En cuanto a la relación con los Estados Unidos, el Ministro de Asuntos Exteriores ruso, Serguéi Lavrov, en su conferencia de prensa anual este mes, afirmó que “la guerra fría se acabó hace tiempo, Rusia y los Estados Unidos no son adversarios”. Sin embargo, la disputa en torno a la colocación del escudo antimisiles en Europa ha hecho aumentar la percepción de amenaza de Estados Unidos hacia Rusia, ya que Washington no quiere ofrecer garantías jurídicas de que el sistema no está dirigido hacia Moscú. Si bien ellos argumentan que el sistema del escudo antimisiles está pensado para contrarrestar un ataque iraní, por su ubicación y alcance, presenta un riesgo real para las fuerzas nucleares estratégicas rusas.
En el caso de que efectivamente se desate una guerra, sería muy difícil que Rusia se mantenga al margen, por lo que no puede arriesgarse a perder capacidad de disuasión nuclear frente a ningún país. Ante esta situación, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso ya ha comenzado la preparación de los Ejercicios Estratégicos de Mando y Estado Mayor (EEMEM), cuyo objetivo es entrenar a las Fuerzas Armadas ante un eventual combate como resultado de un ataque norteamericano a Irán o la escalada de algún conflicto en la región del Cáucaso Sur.
Todo depende de cómo evolucione la disputa en torno al cierre del Estrecho de Ormuz, y, sobre todo, de la persistencia del conflicto en Siria, en donde Occidente juega la carta del desorden y la guerra civil para justificar su presencia en la zona. Por su parte, Rusia sostiene que es inadmisible una intervención militar extranjera en Siria y, junto con China, no prevé sanciones al régimen desde el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas. Serguéi Lavrov explicó que Rusia busca una “solución diplomática” y apoyó la iniciativa de la misión de observadores de la Liga Árabe para intentar estabilizar la región. El titular de la diplomacia rusa acaba de puntualizar que no se trata de derrocar o no a Assad, sino de permitir que los sirios resuelvan su problema sin ningún tipo de intromisión que repita la ingerencia armada como en Libia.
En estos días de agitadas negociaciones en la ONU sobre hipotéticas sanciones a Damasco, Rusia dio otra contundente prueba de su firmeza. El canciller Lavrov, de visita oficial en Australia, no respondió a un persistente llamado de la Secretaria de Estado norteamericana Hillary Clinton, que pretendía la adhesión de Moscú a un proyecto de resolución de la ONU que implica lisa y llanamente el pedido de renuncia al presidente sirio Assad.
Lavrov justificó el “no contest” afirmando que su agenda de reuniones en Australia no le permitió atender las llamadas de Clinton. Pero, como trasfondo, subrayó: “Al fin de fuentas, los embajadores están ante la mesa de negociación y discutir a esta distancia algunas comas y correcciones de estilo no es, seguramente, el mejor método”.
Sergio G. Caplan es investigador del Centro Argentino de Estudios Internacionales
Increases tension in the Persian Gulf
Sergio G. Caplan, for Russia TodayEscalating diplomatic far though loud noise of weapons has returned to dominate the international scene and has as its epicenter the Middle East. The threatening situation close to civil war in Syria's intentions is exacerbated by certain Western circles coup. In Egypt, demonstrations take place against the military government. In Libya, do not go out fighting between supporters and opponents of the new regime.
Picture from wikipedia.orgIn the Persian Gulf, however, goes to extreme belligerence hot. Iran and the United States are the main actors in a conflict that clearly exceeded. The whole world is involved in the increase of tension that could lead to a war for power and natural resources of one of the most unstable areas of the planet.
Following the announcement of the embargo on imports of oil from Muslim countries led by the United States and will be followed progressively by the 27 European Union countries, Iran responded by announcing it will close down the Straits of Hormuz. This step is the most important sea route to export gas and oil from the Persian Gulf, and that she runs 35% of the world's oil. In turn, the U.S. said they will not allow closure of the passage and sent some ships to the region for military exercises. The British and French did the same.
Instability of the international systemThis creates instability in the international system because of the interests at stake, between which include mainly the possibility that Iran will finally get the ability to develop nuclear weapons. Given this scenario, the U.S. does not rule out military means to deal with the Islamic Republic, even "pushing" to Israel to start the confrontation.
The main goal of America is to change the system of government in Iran to disable its nuclear program and thus gain control over the entire oil rich Middle East region.But to conquer this goal, you must first turn to President Bashar Al Assad in Syria, Iran's main political ally. Syria is currently the key geopolitical region. Unless the West achieved overthrow the government in Damascus, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will find a valuable means of escape to the Mediterranean Sea just the United States withdraw from Iraq. For this reason, part of U.S. troops already relocated in Iraq were evacuated bases in Jordan, right on the border with Syria.
The position of the KremlinThe Russian Federation is no stranger to this conflict as it maintains close relations with both Iran and the United States and for this reason does not suit the conflict continues to escalate. The Kremlin insists tenaciously to keep the negotiation between the "Group 5 +1" (the permanent members of UN Security plus Germany) and the Islamic country to reach an agreement based on checking the use by Iranenrichment of uranium for civilian purposes. Something that Tehran has just reiterated his willingness, as confirmed by the recent delegation of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) ..
Russia is against any sanctions that may be imposed on Iran either unilaterally or through United Nations. There is insufficient evidence to show that the Iranian nuclear program has the objective of obtaining weapons of mass destruction, and meanwhile, there's no reason that it be legitimately punished by any state or international organization. However, the "Group 5 +1) has no visible results despite the expressed willingness to negotiate by the Islamic Republic. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, proposed to Turkey as the next venue of the sextet and awaits confirmation from losEstados States, who should, on request of Iran, sit down and negotiate without preconditions.
Allies and rivalsWhere the conflict comes to a level of military confrontation, Russia would be a very uncomfortable position. Iran is one of its main allies in the energy field. One of the atomic research center of Iran's most important, the Bushehr plant is the result of cooperation with Russia. Moreover, the proposed construction of the pipeline between Baku, Tbilisi and the Turkish port of Ceihán in the Mediterranean (BTC), driven by Turkey and the U.S. strengthened cooperation between Russia and Iran.Both countries see the project as a direct threat to its energy interests. This special bond between Moscow and Tehran also allows Russia to increase its capacity to influence its policy towards the Middle East.
However, not all bilateral cooperation in this regard. Russia and Iran remain some discrepancies in their projections on the Caspian Sea and its influence on South Caucasus region, where Iran is a regional leader and Russia must compete to demonstrate the validity of its historical power. While this situation is now under control, there is a bid for partnerships with former Soviet republics in the Caucasus to try to keep trade and military ties in the region, which also seek to play Turkish interests, Americans and Arabs ..
For these reasons, the Russian Federation supports Iran in developing its nuclear program, but only if it pursues peaceful purposes. Otherwise, Russia would be obliged to see Iran as a more serious rival, fighting the power not only in the areas mentioned above, but on the whole region of Central Asia.
Is the cold war over?As for the relationship with the United States, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in his annual press conference this month, said that "the Cold War ended long ago, Russia and the United States are not adversaries." However, the dispute over the placement of the missile shield in Europe has increased the perception of U.S. threat to Russia, as Washington does not provide legal guarantees that the system is not directed toward Moscow. While they argue that the missile defense system is intended to counter an Iranian attack, its location and scope, presents a real threat to Russian strategic nuclear forces.
In the event that war breaks out effectively, it would be very difficult for Russia to stay out, so you can not afford to miss nuclear deterrent against any country. In this situation, the Russian Defense Ministry has begun the preparation of Strategic Exercises Command and Staff College (EEMEM), which aims to train the armed forces to combat a possible result of a U.S. attack on Iran or climbing some conflict in the South Caucasus region.
It all depends on the evolution of the dispute over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and, above all, the continuing conflict in Syria, where the West plays the card of disorder and civil war to justify its presence in the area. For its part, Russia argues that it is inadmissible foreign military intervention in Syria, along with China, no sanctions regime from the Security Council of United Nations. Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is seeking a "diplomatic solution" and supported the mission of observers from the Arab League to try to stabilize the region. The head of Russian diplomacy just point out that this is not to overthrow Assad or not, but to allow the Syrians to solve your problem without any interference to repeat as armed interference in Libya.
In these days of hectic negotiations in the UN sanctions on Damascus hypothetical, Russia gave another convincing proof of its soundness. Foreign Minister Lavrov official visit to Australia, did not respond to a persistent call of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who sought Moscow's accession to a draft UN resolution that plainly implies the order of resignation to President Syrian Assad.
Lavrov defended the "no contest" asserting that his schedule of meetings in Australia would not let him take calls from Clinton. But as background, said: "At last from sources, the ambassadors are at the negotiating table and discuss this distance some commas and proofreading is surely not the best method."
Sergio G. Caplan is a researcher of the Argentine Center of International Studies
February 2, 2012
Picture from wikipedia.orgIn the Persian Gulf, however, goes to extreme belligerence hot. Iran and the United States are the main actors in a conflict that clearly exceeded. The whole world is involved in the increase of tension that could lead to a war for power and natural resources of one of the most unstable areas of the planet.
Following the announcement of the embargo on imports of oil from Muslim countries led by the United States and will be followed progressively by the 27 European Union countries, Iran responded by announcing it will close down the Straits of Hormuz. This step is the most important sea route to export gas and oil from the Persian Gulf, and that she runs 35% of the world's oil. In turn, the U.S. said they will not allow closure of the passage and sent some ships to the region for military exercises. The British and French did the same.
Instability of the international systemThis creates instability in the international system because of the interests at stake, between which include mainly the possibility that Iran will finally get the ability to develop nuclear weapons. Given this scenario, the U.S. does not rule out military means to deal with the Islamic Republic, even "pushing" to Israel to start the confrontation.
The main goal of America is to change the system of government in Iran to disable its nuclear program and thus gain control over the entire oil rich Middle East region.But to conquer this goal, you must first turn to President Bashar Al Assad in Syria, Iran's main political ally. Syria is currently the key geopolitical region. Unless the West achieved overthrow the government in Damascus, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will find a valuable means of escape to the Mediterranean Sea just the United States withdraw from Iraq. For this reason, part of U.S. troops already relocated in Iraq were evacuated bases in Jordan, right on the border with Syria.
The position of the KremlinThe Russian Federation is no stranger to this conflict as it maintains close relations with both Iran and the United States and for this reason does not suit the conflict continues to escalate. The Kremlin insists tenaciously to keep the negotiation between the "Group 5 +1" (the permanent members of UN Security plus Germany) and the Islamic country to reach an agreement based on checking the use by Iranenrichment of uranium for civilian purposes. Something that Tehran has just reiterated his willingness, as confirmed by the recent delegation of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) ..
Russia is against any sanctions that may be imposed on Iran either unilaterally or through United Nations. There is insufficient evidence to show that the Iranian nuclear program has the objective of obtaining weapons of mass destruction, and meanwhile, there's no reason that it be legitimately punished by any state or international organization. However, the "Group 5 +1) has no visible results despite the expressed willingness to negotiate by the Islamic Republic. The Iranian Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, proposed to Turkey as the next venue of the sextet and awaits confirmation from losEstados States, who should, on request of Iran, sit down and negotiate without preconditions.
Allies and rivalsWhere the conflict comes to a level of military confrontation, Russia would be a very uncomfortable position. Iran is one of its main allies in the energy field. One of the atomic research center of Iran's most important, the Bushehr plant is the result of cooperation with Russia. Moreover, the proposed construction of the pipeline between Baku, Tbilisi and the Turkish port of Ceihán in the Mediterranean (BTC), driven by Turkey and the U.S. strengthened cooperation between Russia and Iran.Both countries see the project as a direct threat to its energy interests. This special bond between Moscow and Tehran also allows Russia to increase its capacity to influence its policy towards the Middle East.
However, not all bilateral cooperation in this regard. Russia and Iran remain some discrepancies in their projections on the Caspian Sea and its influence on South Caucasus region, where Iran is a regional leader and Russia must compete to demonstrate the validity of its historical power. While this situation is now under control, there is a bid for partnerships with former Soviet republics in the Caucasus to try to keep trade and military ties in the region, which also seek to play Turkish interests, Americans and Arabs ..
For these reasons, the Russian Federation supports Iran in developing its nuclear program, but only if it pursues peaceful purposes. Otherwise, Russia would be obliged to see Iran as a more serious rival, fighting the power not only in the areas mentioned above, but on the whole region of Central Asia.
Is the cold war over?As for the relationship with the United States, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in his annual press conference this month, said that "the Cold War ended long ago, Russia and the United States are not adversaries." However, the dispute over the placement of the missile shield in Europe has increased the perception of U.S. threat to Russia, as Washington does not provide legal guarantees that the system is not directed toward Moscow. While they argue that the missile defense system is intended to counter an Iranian attack, its location and scope, presents a real threat to Russian strategic nuclear forces.
In the event that war breaks out effectively, it would be very difficult for Russia to stay out, so you can not afford to miss nuclear deterrent against any country. In this situation, the Russian Defense Ministry has begun the preparation of Strategic Exercises Command and Staff College (EEMEM), which aims to train the armed forces to combat a possible result of a U.S. attack on Iran or climbing some conflict in the South Caucasus region.
It all depends on the evolution of the dispute over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and, above all, the continuing conflict in Syria, where the West plays the card of disorder and civil war to justify its presence in the area. For its part, Russia argues that it is inadmissible foreign military intervention in Syria, along with China, no sanctions regime from the Security Council of United Nations. Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is seeking a "diplomatic solution" and supported the mission of observers from the Arab League to try to stabilize the region. The head of Russian diplomacy just point out that this is not to overthrow Assad or not, but to allow the Syrians to solve your problem without any interference to repeat as armed interference in Libya.
In these days of hectic negotiations in the UN sanctions on Damascus hypothetical, Russia gave another convincing proof of its soundness. Foreign Minister Lavrov official visit to Australia, did not respond to a persistent call of the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who sought Moscow's accession to a draft UN resolution that plainly implies the order of resignation to President Syrian Assad.
Lavrov defended the "no contest" asserting that his schedule of meetings in Australia would not let him take calls from Clinton. But as background, said: "At last from sources, the ambassadors are at the negotiating table and discuss this distance some commas and proofreading is surely not the best method."
Sergio G. Caplan is a researcher of the Argentine Center of International Studies
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